'What is Russia up to in the Middle East?' by Dmitri Trenin

In 'What is Russia up to in the Middle East?', Dmitri Trenin aims to answer four questions: 

1. What is Moscow up to in the Middle East? What are its interests and the drivers behind those interests?
2. How does Russia's involvement in the various parts of the Middle East impact the situation there? Is there a Russian strategy for the region and if so, what is it? If the policy is a sum total of many moves, what is the trajectory, and what is the track record so far?
3. How does Russia's recent activity in the Middle East impact the rest of the world, starting with Europe?
4. What is the balance between Russia the competitor of the United States in the Middle East, and Russia as a potential partner in the fight against Da'esh and terrorism generally?

Chapter 1 ('History') deals with the legacy of the past, from the days of the Russian Empire advancing toward the Turkish Straits and pushing into Persia, to the Soviet Union's attempt to use radical Arab regimes as allies in the Cold War confrontation with the United States and Moscow's pressure against US allies Israel, Turkey and Iran and conservative regimes such as Saudi Arabia. 

Chapter 2 ('War') focuses on the continuing Russian military operation in Syria, which began in September 2015, and its political outcome. The author claims Russia's military engagement constitutes a novel employment of Russian military force, both operationally and technologically.

Chapter 3 ('Diplomacy') discusses the patterns of Russia's regional diplomacy, highlighting Moscow's method of negotiating regional divides by dealing simultaneously with countries and groups that are at loggerheads with one another, and promoting Russian interests with each partner. The chapter also addresses the geopolitical competition and diplomatic cooperation between Russia and Turkey, between Russia and the United States and between Russia and the countries of the European Union. 

Chapter 4 ('Trade') focuses on Russia's economic interests in the Middle East: from arms trade to hydrocarbons, nuclear energy, pipelines and transportation infrastructure. The author explains that these specific interests impact Russian decision-making as much as geopolitics. The chapter also covers the ties that link Russia to the region, including the spiritual importance of the Holy Land for newly traditionalist Russia, the Russian-speaking diaspora in Israel, Russian vacationers, and the impact of the Arab world on the Muslim population of Russia itself.

In the conclusion of the book, the author puts Moscow's policies in the Middle East into the broader context of its foreign policy and relations with the United States and, to a lesser extent, Europe. The central question is how Moscow, through its actions in the Middle East, is seeking to change the global order, essentially from a US hegemony to an oligarchy that includes Russia. 

If you are interested in reading the book, it is available at the library, so just drop in and take a look or borrow it

Dmitri Trenin is the director of the Carnegie Moscow Centre and has been with the centre since its foundation. He also chairs the research council and the foreign and security policy programme. Trenin retired from the Russian army in 1993. From 1993–1997, he held a post as a senior research fellow at the Institute of Europe in Moscow. In 1993, he was a senior research fellow at the NATO Defence College in Rome.

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