Think tank review
20. maj 2026

Think Tank Review 141 - May 2026

EU Council Summit for the Energy Ministers at Nicosia. — ©European Union

EU politics and institutions

A broad analysis is given of the Hungarian elections and the victory of the centre-right Tisza party, with reports underlining the desire for change on the part of a large proportion of the Hungarian population; in particular, young people -weary of Viktor Orbán's posturing and rhetoric, the corruption issues and Orbán's unsuccessful attempts to overcome the economic crisis - overwhelmingly chose to change the country's leadership in the hope that the economy will improve and the country will emerge from its isolation. Papers point out that proof of this lies in the very high voter turnout (78.99%), the highest since the 2002 parliamentary elections (70.5%). They also speculate about Péter Magyar's next steps and whether he will deliver on his promises for 'regime change' in Hungary: combating corruption and state capture by the Fidesz party, boosting economic growth, increasing funding for public services and social policies, improving wages and pensions and restoring the rule of law to unlock EU funds. As regards Ukraine's accession to the EU, articles note that this is unfolding against a backdrop of mounting geopolitical tensions, primarily Russia's war against Ukraine and the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. The uncertainty surrounding peace negotiations is seen as a threat, as is the unpredictability of Washington's policy and shifts in US geopolitical priorities.

Hertie School - Jacques Delors Centre

In the shadow of the European Council: when and how do national leaders influence everyday law-making?

Brussels Institute for Geopolitics

Hungary steps out of Orbán’s shadow

Fondation Robert Schuman

Peter Magyar remporte largement les élections législatives en Hongrie et marque le début d'une nouvelle ère

European Policy Centre

Hungary after Orbán? The case for phased rule-of-law conditionality

Centre for European Reform

What Orbán's departure means for Hungary and for Europe

Institut Montaigne

Hongrie, Pologne, Italie: les nationaux populistes à l'épreuve du pouvoir

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs)

EU enlargement: Ukraine as a special case. The Western Balkans as the norm: anchoring Kyiv in the EU through a new type of accession association

The Geopolitics and Security Studies Center

Ukraine and Moldova EU accession: internal reforms, geopolitical “vetoes,” and the territorial integrity issue

Центр Разумкова (Razumkov Center) / Hanns Seidel Stiftung

Ukraine’s path to the EU: current state, challenges, prospects

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs)

The rule of law in Ukraine: more than combating corruption

European Policy Centre

Unlocking Bosnia and Herzegovina’s EU accession path

Centrum Analiz Społeczno-Ekonomicznych (Center for Social and Economic Research)

The territorial dimension of the reform and growth facility for the Western Balkans

Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)

The president’s new clothes: Bulgaria ahead of parliamentary elections

Hertie School - Jacques Delors Centre

Raising the cost of rule of law breaches: rule of law conditionality in the next EU budget

EU policies

An extensive assessment is made of the financing of the EU budget based on the five Commission proposals for new own resources: papers endorse - subject to with adaptations - the four 'own resources' proposals based on the emissions trading system, carbon border adjustment mechanism revenue, the tobacco excise duty and uncollected electrical and electronic equipment waste. Their primary justification lies in supporting EU-wide objectives. Studies explain why Europe needs securitisation, as securitisation can strengthen the EU's financial system by expanding lending, supporting the green and digital transitions and improving financing resilience, particularly in periods of stress. Leaving coal behind by proposing international carbon credits could contribute to the EU's 2040 climate target. Papers note that the emerging role of international carbon credits raises important policy choices. Taking a strategic approach to international carbon credits could help align the EU's own climate ambitions and broader economic and geopolitical interests while supporting the overall global clean transition. At a time when decarbonisation is increasingly linked to energy security and affordability, industrial competitiveness and geopolitical priorities, reports explore how to make the EU's climate and energy policy fit for the 2030s. Countering foreign information manipulation in the Baltic Sea region is examined, and in particular how the Russian Federation and other actors use propaganda and disinformation as part of a broader strategy of influence. Articles describe the benefits and costs of website-blocking legislation; they suggest that piracy is a complex phenomenon that cannot be solved solely by technical measures such as blocking. They also explore how Europe can power the AI revolution and remain competitive; by using all available technologies and cutting energy costs, Europe could secure affordable electricity for AI, strengthen energy security and maintain its economic and geopolitical influence. Publications discuss how Europe should respond to the Iran gas shock: while the EU's gas supply is not in immediate danger, if the conflict persists ? and given the EU's dependence on gas imports ? its energy import bill may be heavily impacted.

Agriculture and Fisheries

European Centre for Development Policy Management

Are EU agri-food policies Paris-compatible?

Competitiveness (Internal Market, Industry, Research and Space)

Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (German Economic Institute)

Making transformation risks measureable

Brussels Institute for Geopolitics

EU merger control in an age of geopolitics

Ελληνικό Ίδρυμα Ευρωπαϊκής και Εξωτερικής Πολιτικής (Hellenic Foundation for European Foreign Policy)

The EU’s strategic dependence on critical raw materials

Nederlands Instituut voor Internationale Betrekkingen - Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations)

Why European industry needs carbon diplomacy in the age of CBAM

Economic and Financial Affairs

Bruegel

Financing the EU budget: an assessment of five proposals for new resources

Centre for European Policy Studies

More credit, better risk sharing: why Europe needs securitisation

Fundación de Estudios de Economía Aplicada

Evaluación de las respuestas fiscales europeas al bloqueo del Estrecho de Ormuz

Bruegel

The growing impact of political risk on financial markets

Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE

Public discourse on retail payments and the case of CBDC

Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (German Economic Institute )

Ökonomische Folgen autoritären Regierens am Beispiel Ungarn

Centrum Analiz Społeczno-Ekonomicznych (Center for Social and Economic Research)

Wealth taxation, including net wealth, capital and exit taxes

Bruegel

Risks for Europe of US dominance of global asset management

Education / Youth / Culture / Sport

Ελληνικό Ίδρυμα Ευρωπαϊκής και Εξωτερικής Πολιτικής (Hellenic Foundation for European Foreign Policy)

Sport, heritage and cultural diplomacy: the heyday road experience in Sparta

Center for European Policy Analysis

Mapping the spread of child safety rules

Employment / Social Policy / Health and Consumer Affairs

Atlantic Council

Navigating the European Union’s AI and health data framework

Svenska institutet för europapolitiska studier (Swedish Institute for European Policy Studies)

Does gender equality fuel regional growth in the European Union?

Centre for European Policy Studies

How to integrate social and climate objectives into the EU’s housing policy

Environmental Issues

Centre for European Policy Studies

Leaving coal behind: international carbon credits under the EU’s 2040 climate target

Ecologic Institute

Challenges for assessing and implementing nature-based solutions at landscape-scale

E3G

Making the EU’s climate and energy policy fit for the 2030s

E3G

Securing Europe against climate risks: the case for EU action

Institut für Weltwirtschaft Kiel (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)

Carbon leakage due to EU climate policy? An overview

Justice and Home Affairs

The Geopolitics and Security Studies Center

Countering foreign information manipulation in the Baltic sea region: patterns, responses and gaps

Centre for European Policy Studies

The benefits and costs of website-blocking legislation: an economic, legal and policy assessment

Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)

Post-2020 Belarusian permanent migration to the EU and beyond: an empirical assessment

Transport / Telecommunications / Energy

European Council on Foreign Relations

Fast energy: how Europe can power the AI revolution and stay competitive

Institute for Public Policy Research

Acceleration is not a strategy: a framework for directing AI towards public value before it's too late

European Centre for Development Policy Management

Building a European industrial offer on digital connectivity

European Centre for Development Policy Management

Sovereignty in European international digital policy

Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)

The ties that bind: energy connectivity in the age of geopolitical turbulence

Bertelsmann Stiftung

Digitale Räume sicher gestalten: Schutz ohne Ausschluss

Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (Centre for European Economic Research)

Unleashing productivity growth in the age of digitalisation: evidence from German SMEs

Ulkopoliittinen instituutti (Finnish Institute of International Affairs)

Germany’s energy transition: building a just and resilient Energiewende amid economic and geopolitical crises

Ecologic Institute

European energy security or acquiescence?

European Policy Centre

Preparedness can’t wait: AI pushes cybersecurity into a new era

İstanbul Politikalar Merkezi (Istanbul Policy Center)

The EU’s energy diversification framework: can the role of the southern gas corridor expand?

Economic and Social Research Institute

A descriptive comparison of Irish and European electricity prices: 2018–2024

Bruegel

How Europe should respond to the Iran gas shock – and how it shouldn’t

Център за изследване на демокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy)

The last stronghold: Hungary can complete Europe’s energy decoupling from Russia

Institut français des relations internationales

L'Allemagne maintient sa zone de prix unique dans l'électricité: implications

Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)

Critical minerals and the new geopolitics of the green transition: insights from energy talk 2026

Foreign and security policy / Defence

Debating the way in which the Global Gateway can redefine the EU's external profile, papers note that it marks a significant shift in Europe's approach to development, economic policy and geopolitics, with a particular focus on its relations with Africa. They see it as a promising but complex trend that balances the promotion of European interests against outreach to foreign partners. Papers ask why and how Europeans must prepare for US retrenchment, arguing that restraintist forces will continue to influence US foreign policy. Europe therefore urgently needs to establish an autonomous security architecture. Transatlantic cooperation on AI and national security are analysed, as the links between AI and national security constitute a key test of the transatlantic relationship. Europe's place in the global permacrisis is discussed, including in relation to President Trump's threats to weaken or abandon NATO and the risk of any chaos that could lead to reduced global prosperity, sustainability and security, thereby making the world a much more dangerous place for future generations. Papers propose constructing a new global architecture in which Europe can play a decisive role. The success of European trade policy is discussed in the light of three recent cases - Mercosur, India, and Australia - which are not only successful trade negotiations but also demonstrate the Union's capacity to act politically when it possesses clear competencies. Articles ask what comes next for the multilateral trade order following the failure of the World Trade Organization's ministerial conference in Yaoundé.

Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)

Gains amid mounting challenges: the consequences of the war in Iran for Russia

Istituto Affari Internazionali

Russia’s frozen assets: a litmus test for the EU

Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)

Opening Pandora’s box? Instability in the Persian Gulf as a risk factor for global transport and supply chains

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung

Außenpolitische Fragen der Republik Zypern während der EU-Ratspräsidentschaft

Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (German Development Institute)

Back to the future: the pact for the Mediterranean and the mirage of Euro-Mediterranean integration

European Council on Foreign Relations

The full monty: why the Mediterranean pact needs to offer the works

Trans European Policy Studies Association

How can the Global Gateway redefine the EU’s external profile?

Nederlands Instituut voor Internationale Betrekkingen - Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations)

Indonesia’s parallel engagement with BRICS, the OECD and the EU

Atlantic Council

The shadow fleet is undermining the maritime order more brazenly than ever

Ulkopoliittinen instituutti (Finnish Institute of International Affairs) et al.

The circles of security: the role of the NB8 in (Northern) European security

Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)

Why and how Europeans must prepare for US retrenchment

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs)

Russlands begrenzte Fähigkeiten zum Schutz seiner »Schattenflotte«. Deutschlands Handlungsspielräume in der Nordsee und darüber hinaus

Real Instituto Elcano (Elcano Royal Institute)

No basta con el escudo, necesitamos la espada: la obtención de capacidades ofensivas para el ciberespacio

Atlantic Council

Transatlantic cooperation on AI and national security

Atlantic Council

Fusion on paper or in practice? Making the cloud work for ISR and NATO

Ulkopoliittinen instituutti (Finnish Institute of International Affairs)

Theatre nuclear weapons in NATO’s deterrence: towards the revival of flexible response

Magyar Külügyi Intézet

Deepening European and Latin American security cooperation

Institute for National Security Studies

Watching from the sidelines and still affected: Europe and the war in Iran

European Centre for Development Policy Management

Strategic choices to connect peace, defence and deterrence

Brussels Institute for Geopolitics

Intergovernmental cooperation in defence

European Policy Centre

Could defence cooperation generate a spillover effect for Türkiye–EU relations?

European Policy Centre

Europe’s place in the global permacrisis

Ελληνικό Ίδρυμα Ευρωπαϊκής και Εξωτερικής Πολιτικής (Hellenic Foundation for European Foreign Policy)

Implications of the Iran crisis for Greece’s defence policy

Center for European Policy Analysis

Transatlantic action: sanctioning third-country enablers of Russia’s war economy

Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies

Responding to crises in Europe

Център за изследване на демокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy)

From Arctic exceptionalism to strategic confrontation

Brussels School of Governance - Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy

Intergovernmental cooperation in defence

European Policy Centre

Could defence cooperation generate a spillover effect for Türkiye–EU relations?

Nederlands Instituut voor Internationale Betrekkingen - Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations) et al.

Catching up: Europe’s path to strategic autonomy in the defence industry

Institut français des relations internationales

Finlande, l'allié venu du froid

The German Marshall Fund of the United States

Reforms first, candidacy later

European Policy Institute in Kyiv

The day after: six post-war challenges for Ukraine

Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations

From deal to rules: an EU offer for TRIPP and middle corridor governance

Fondation Robert Schuman

Quel avenir pour la relation euro-insulaire?

Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (German Development Institute)

Zusammen ist man weniger allein: mit Team Europe 2.0 die europäische Entwicklungspolitik stärken

Migration Policy Institute

From exile to return: rebuilding lives and states after conflict

Bruegel

The European Union’s external imbalances: past, future and policy

LUISS School of European Political Economy

European trade policy: the Union’s change of pace

European Policy Centre

After the breakthrough: charting the future of EU–India relations

Centre for European Reform

WTO reform after Yaoundé: what next for the multilateral trade order?

Institut Montaigne

Relations UE-Taiwan et semi-conducteurs: bâtir une confiance durable

Centre for European Reform

One year llberation day: the delusion of transatlantic economic divorce

Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier (Danish Institute of International Studies)

Referendums and postcoloniality in Greenland: self-determination and action space as collateral damage of bounding and un-bounding demoi

Global affairs

The questions as to what the ceasefire means for Iran, President Trump, the Strait of Hormuz and the UK, and how the world should respond to challenges to the humanitarian legal order, as well as the strategic outcome during the ceasefire, and whether a Hormuz toll could solve the oil crisis and who would pay such a toll are commented on. With regard to the US on the global stage, papers argue that the Iran war shows the limits of US power, and that if Washington cannot adapt to the ongoing transformations of a multipolar world, then its superiority will become a liability. Articles look at US-China interaction on trade affairs, arguing that the trade war has created new power dynamics around a supply chain race that centres on leveraging chokepoints in critical minerals and advanced technologies.

The German Marshall Fund of the United States

Oil shock at the ballot box

Chatham House - The Royal Institute of International Affairs

US–Iran ceasefire: what it means for Trump, Tehran, Israel and US allies

Chatham House - The Royal Institute of International Affairs

The Strait of Hormuz, shipping, and law

Chatham House - The Royal Institute of International Affairs

How a surge in defence and dual-use technology investment could reconfigure the global AI race

Carnegie Europe

Rewiring the South Caucasus: TRIPP and the new geopolitics of connectivity

Κυπριακό Κέντρο Ευρωπαϊκών και Διεθνών Υποθέσεων (Cyprus Center for European and International Affairs)

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